A
lot of tough picks…
By
Jeff Sallas
Tennessee at
Georgia – The game of the week (Saturday at 2:30 CDT on CBS)
After tough
games last week Tennessee and Georgia meet in a huge SEC East game. This is a major power struggle. A win by UT keeps them in the race, a loss
almost eliminates them. Meanwhile
Georgia could take a huge step beating UT for the 3rd year in a
row. After the big win over Bama and
the rumors about Casey Clausen’s health, Georgia seems like a sure pick but as
soon as you put UT as a huge underdog then they surprise you.
The biggest
storyline so far though is Casey Clausen’s shoulder. Tennessee newspapers are reporting he has a broken collarbone but
UT coaches won’t confirm anything. It
is hard to know what to believe but there is no doubt that Clausen is injured
in some way. He hasn’t practiced all
week so that is not a good sign. Junior
C.J. Leak, a transfer from Wake Forest, is predicted to get the start if
Clausen can’t go. However there have
also been some reports of WR Kelley Washington taking some snaps at QB as well.
Even with
Clausen the Vols are still struggling a bit on offense. The stats got better though as Jabari Davis
had a breakout game with 135 yards rushing while Clausen had nearly 300 yard
passing against Arkansas. The Vols
could only put up 17 points in regulation though. People who have watched all the UT games this year are starting
to point to the offensive line. The OL
just hasn’t been as good as in years past and there have been some injuries.
The Vol
defense held the Razorbacks in check except for one drive and one pass. However they will face much stiffer
competition this week in the Georgia offense.
They didn’t play perfect against Bama but played a very solid game. The Bulldogs look very strong with super-WRs
Fred Gibson and Terrence Edwards, a senior OL and RB Musa Smith. QB David Greene played well against Bama but
is still the weak link. I think they
have to get the ball to Gibson and Edwards even more. They need more touches.
I look for a
similar game plan to last week from Georgia.
Establish a passing game early and then run Musa Smith. I look for UT to try and establish the
running game Bama was unable to with Jabari Davis and get the ball in the hands
of Kelley Washington. I continue to
have a sneaky feeling the Vols will play pretty well in this game. However it is tough to bet against the
Georgia Bulldogs right now. I say
Georgia by a nose...
GEORGIA OVER
TENNESSEE
LSU at
Florida (Saturday at 6:45 CDT on ESPN)
LSU has not
had much success against Florida as of late.
After last week’s Florida meltdown at Ole Miss LSU’s hopes are probably
on the rise. However the continuing
storyline surrounding the Tigers is their abysmal passing game. Matt Mauck went 8 for 19 last week against
La. Laf. last week. He did have 3 TD
passes but that stats still look pretty bad for playing a patsy. Also All-SEC RB LaBrandon Toefield broke his
arm and is out for awhile.
RB Joseph
Addai picked up the slack last week with almost 100 yards on 11 carries. The Tigers also have outstanding all-purpose
back Dominick Davis. LSU will obviously
rely heavily on it’s running game. If
Florida can stuff the Tigers early and get a lead they should be in very good
shape. The question is can Florida get
back off the mat after the worst offensive showing in a decade last week at Ole
Miss? They will have to do it against
an LSU defense currently rated #1 in total defense in the entire nation.
Now a lot of
that great defense has been against patsies but the Tiger defense led by LB
Brady James and an outstanding DL is very tough. I am not sure how Florida will attack the LSU defense. This Florida team just has not established a
personality on offense. One moment they
are slinging the ball like the Fun n’ Gun and the other minute they are trying
to run it. If this game was in Baton
Rouge I would probably go with the Tigers but...
It will still
be awhile though before I can shift gears and start predicting Florida losses
at the Swamp regularly.
FLORIDA OVER
LSU
Arkansas at
Auburn (Saturday at 11:30 CDT on Jefferson Pilot)
All the SEC
West teams have interesting series between them but I think it can be said that
Arkansas has been Auburn’s nemesis since it came into the conference. Auburn has won a few but they usually have
been very tough. In 1992 Arkansas
spoiled the retiring of Bo Jackson’s jersey with a tie in Auburn. Auburn pulled out close wins in 1993 in the
cold and in 1994 pushing Stephen Davis to the max. However in 1995 Auburn would have gone to Atlanta their first
year off probation except for a shocking loss at Arkansas. Auburn toughed out a win in 1996 only to
almost get upset by Northeast La. the next week. In 1997 Arkansas pushed Auburn to the limit before losing but
Auburn was shutout at home the next week by Miss St. In 1998 Auburn made their only stand of the season against
Arkansas only to lose at the end.
Auburn eked out a close game in 2000 which was sandwiched between
Arkansas blowouts at home in 1999 and 2001.
The moral of the story is what Tennessee learned last week, most of the
time Arkansas comes to play.
This year
looks to be different for Auburn.
Arkansas for the first time since they came into the SEC appears much
earlier on Auburn’s schedule. Also
Arkansas played a 6 OT marathon at Tennessee while Auburn had an open
week. Plus Auburn should not take
Arkansas lightly after the whipping they took in Fayettville last year. All in all, Arkansas should come in against
a rested and ready Auburn Tiger football team.
However if
the history above is any indicator, it will be a tough game. Arkansas ran an unbelievable 66 times (!!!)
last week against Tennessee. They only
threw the ball 21 times. I look for
more of the same this week. I used to
figure Auburn would have a great defense against the option with their speed
but they have continued to have problems with it. They have had plenty of time though to prepare and they should
know Arkansas QB Matt Jones very well as he had his coming out party against
the Tigers last year...
Last year was
a very strange game as Auburn had almost 500 yards of offense but were blown
out. Turnovers did the Tigers in and as
always they will be huge this week.
Auburn even with all their QB questions comes in #1 in the SEC in total
offense. Led by Carnell Williams Auburn
has gotten the job done since an opening loss to USC. Carnell also had his first big game in the Arkansas game last
year. I would expect more in this
game. The big question is whether QB
Daniel Cobb can avoid his 3rd bad start in a row. If he can’t then sophomore QB Jason Campbell
might be in the game before halftime.
Arkansas will
play hard but if Auburn plays near it’s capability then I think they will win.
But as in the history above Auburn will probably be feeling it next week when
they visit the Swamp...
AUBURN OVER
ARKANSAS
South
Carolina at Kentucky (Saturday at 5:30 CDT on ESPN2)
Here is where
the rubber meets the road for Kentucky.
Despite their improvement nobody really expects them to beat Florida and
Tennessee or Georgia this year. However
with South Carolina having a bit of a down year the door is open for the
Wildcats to take the Gamecock’s spot.
Other than Tennessee/Georgia this might be the most interesting game of
the week.
Kentucky
seems to be improved in all areas but do they have to poise to win a game a lot
of people are picking them in? Lou
Holtz and South Carolina have shown their poise and ability to win games they
should the last 2 weeks. Kentucky must
cut down on the mistakes they made when they played Florida. I guarantee South Carolina will come out
very physical.
However I
think Kentucky has more playmakers this year and a good enough defense to win
this game. I think this is a huge game
for the Kentucky. This game is at home
against a tough but beatable opponent.
It has been a long time since Kentucky was in this position. The only time I can think of was when Tim
Couch was there. Kentucky played a
mediocre Georgia team at home but could not come away with the win.
I don’t like
betting against South Carolina as Lou Holtz has made his living winning these
type of games but I will go with...
KENTUCKY OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA
Elsewhere
(and in the first 2, payback for upsets last year...)
Miss St over
Troy St.
Ole Miss over
Arkansas St.
Bama is open
this week.
Overall picking SEC vs. SEC/BCS opponents I went 3-1 last week missing the Ole Miss upset of Florida. Overall I am 21-5. Overall including patsies I went 4-1 and am at 42-6.